Since it is based on averages and with around half of matches featuring fewer than 2.5 goals, this is to be expected. Yet whilst all shots are worth 0.097 goals on average using a simple system like this reveals that Manchester City's shots are currently worth 0.113, whereas Hull's are only worth 0.083.
The answer is 0.181001136, or 18%. Ideally you should complete a full set of POISSON calculations for all scores from 0 to 10 goals for both the home and away sides. You can then do things like add-up all the home win scorelines, draw scorelines and away win scorelines to produce match odds.
Away Team Goal Expectancy=Away Attacking Strength x Home Defensive Strength x Average Goals Away How to work out Goal expectancy using ‘Poisson Distribution’ Hopefully your still with me here….
The random variable used here is the goal. lets speak English. If we are looking at the probability of a team scoring three times in a particular match, and the goal expectancy is 3.1 goals. Here the formula would as; =POISSON(3,3.1,FALSE) This would be 0.223677 which also means there would be a 22.37% chance of this team to score exactly 3 goals.
Lorient! Scoring a total of 56 goals whereas given their chances, they were expected to just score 41.5 goals, registering an attacking shooting efficiency of 1.35. Intriguingly enough, all but 1 Lorient players expected to score at least 1 goal registered above average efficiency.
Step 4 Calculate Home and Away Team Goal Expectancy. To get the home team goal expectancy we simply multiply the home attacking strength (1.55) by the away defensive strength (1) by the average goals home for the league (1.5315). This gives us a home team goal expectancy of 2.373825.
From this the tool will estimate the odds for a number of match outcomes including the home,away and draw result, total goals over/under odds and both team to score odds. For example given a home team goal expectancy of 1.655 and away team goal expectancy of 2.123 - Click the Calculate button to see the estimated match odds.
Away Team Goal Expectancy: away attacking strength (1.16) x home defensive strength (0.48) x average goals away (0.96) = 0.53 Hopefully you are still with me…if not, go back and read again. If you are, then great, let’s continue!What we now need to do is use the Poisson Distribution in Excel to calculate the probability of all possible scorelines for the hypothetical Arsenal vs Aston Villa game.